ABSTRACT
Mathematical modeling has been an important tool to estimate key factors of the transmission and investigate the dynamical system of evolutionary nature in epidemics. More precisely, the outbreaks of the virus or epidemiology is generally considered as an application of branching process. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a special type of Markov branching process model to examine and explore some problems of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) infectious disease with the aims of reducing the effective reproduction number of an infection below unity. Since the COVID-19 has been recognized as a global pandemic, we have assessed a big amount of data such as hourly contagious, hospitalized patients, recovered and deaths. However, these data are necessary to be further processed to produce useful information for people and authorities when they make an efficient and optimal decisions. In such a decision-making process, we establish a special type of Gama Markov branching process model which has been successfully applied in other research areas such as queueing and waiting lines problems, stochastic reservoir problems, inventory controls and operation research. Specifically, we develop a three parameter Gama Markov branching process model that is structured in two parts, initial and latter transmission stages, so as to provide a comprehensive view of the virus spread through basic and effective reproduction numbers respectively, along with the probability of an outbreak sizes and duration. As an illustration, we have performed some simulations based on the daily data appearing on WHO dashboard in order to analyze the first semiannual spread of the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic in the region of Myanmar. The results show that the proposed model can be utilized for the real-life applications. © 2022, ICIC International. All rights reserved.